Skewing the bell curve of potential results

Often in my work with clients I find people falling prey to a pessimism that has them anticipating the absolute worst possible result. In the course of discussion about it, I often jump up to the white board and draw a bell curve for the normal range of possible outcomes from the excruciatingly worst outcome to the mind-bogglingly best outcome.

The probability of both the absolute worst and absolute best outcomes is low, with the more likely outcomes coming somewhere in between (the graph that represents that looks like a bell - hence the name). My point is always, "As long as you're going to obsess on an unlikely outcome, why not focus on best case scenario?" Because statistically speaking there's no difference between the probability that each of them will happen. 

In a discussion with a client last week about this bell curve idea, we started talking about the fact that a focus on one extreme or the other actually would actually skew the bell curve in one direction or the other.

Focusing on the extreme negative as the most likely outcome would skew the results in that direction. Focusing on the extreme positive would skew the results in the other direction. It's like that Henry Ford quote, "Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right."

The black bell curve in this picture is the normal distribution of possible outcomes and their likelihood. The red one is the distribution if you focus on the worst, and the blue one is the distribution if you focus on the best. The X's are the average likely result.

So even if you only get an average result out of your efforts, what you focus on has the potential to shift that average result - possibly significantly - in one direction or the other.

(OK. I admit it. I'm a whiteboard junkie. The first step is admitting you have a problem, right? ;-) So now you know.)

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Curt Rosengren, Passion Catalyst ^TM